Dmitri Young, the 34 year-old erstwhile first baseman for the Nats, seems to be enjoying his spring. And with good reason: he’ll likely be starting at the bag on Opening Night, March 30. Yes, I’m sticking my neck out. But that’s what spring training is for, no?

Over the winter the hot-stove league chatter concerned what the Nats were going to do with two first basemen. Neither Dmitri nor Nick Johnson can play another defensive position so one of them, if no trade were made, would have to sit on the bench while earning his $5 million. Given the Learner’s frugality that isn’t likely to happen. One of them has to go.

That assumed, of course, that Johnson had completely recovered from the broken leg he suffered at the end of the 2006 season. Well, early indications are that he has indeed recovered although he isn’t up to his pre-injury skills. In an interview with the Post on Feb. 26, Ryan Zimmerman noted that Johnson “looks better now than he did his breakout year” in 2006.”

High praise after just one outing but its probably just what GM Jim Bowden wanted to hear. If true, that will make it all the easier to deal him. After all, it was Bowden who said “I’m not sure you can actually field this team without making a trade.” (Cue foreboding music).

There are numbers reasons for keeping Young. First, his lifetime batting average is 20 points higher than Johnson’s (.292 vs. .272) and his on-base percentage is 82 points higher (.477 vs. .395). Second, there is that $5 million price tag for someone (Johnson) who gets hurt – a lot. A wrist problem in 2002, a broken cheekbone in 2004, a bruised heel in 2005 and the broken leg in ’06. At this point he could play an extra on Grey’s Anatomy (this guy for instance). Third, is Johnson’s age. At five years younger than Dmitri he’ll be more attractive to prospective buyers.

Then there are the intangible reasons for keeping Young. First, he’s a fan favorite here given his .320 batting average and comeback player of the year award in 2007. Second, can you say Elijah Dukes? The troubled 23-year old who hit 10 homers in 52 games last year with the Marlins could be the future face of the Nats if he doesn’t repeat his run-ins with the law. Luckily for him the Nats were willing to give him a look and Young has been tasked with keeping him on the straight and narrow.

By trading Young the Nats would in no small way be pulling the rug out from under Dukes and, by connection, their rebuilding plans. Something that I think is unlikely to happen.

So long, Nick. And good luck.