Wrigleyville: The Nats schooled the Baby Bears yesterday, 13-5 and that makes two wins in a row. Shocked? This wouldn’t be the first time the Nats played well against the sluggies. Back in late April, the Nats took two of three from the Cubs, with John Lannan turning in a stellar performance (I was in section 128 for the game and he was masterful). He was as masterful yesterday, even if the line didn’t show it: the wind was blowing out at Wrigley and Lannan was touched for five earned runs in six-and-a-third. It could have been worse: he might have been Jason Marquis (I still can’t get past the idea that Marquis remains with the Cubs — as a sixth or even seventh starter. Why isn’t he in Texas? Or Baltimore?).

In the midst of this stinking run (the Nats are 14-23 since July 22), Nats fans can fall back on the fact that the Cubs (or anyone for that matter) would love to get a guy like Lannan and would trade more than a few prospects to put him on the mound. Which is the best reason to keep him and to look to next year — when (if the Nats have any kind of hitting at all), the young lefthander will be odds-on to be much better than .500. That is to say: a premium pitcher, the kind (with Balester) you can build a rotation around.

If Lannan continues to grow he will be a one of those unique pitchers — a lefthander with stuff who can dominate a game. He damn near does now. I wonder if Bowden knows what he has?

Victory, Defeat, Profits: Baseball and softball have been taken out of the Olympics, despite providing some of the most entertaining amateur contests in the history of the games. The U.S. won bronze in baseball and the U.S. women were upset by the Japanese in softball (a phenomenal game). But the most entertaining game was the Cuban-South Korean tilt, which provided a South Korean upset. It was a nail-biter: the Cubans had the bases loaded in the ninth with one out and grounded into a double play.

So why take both sports out of the games? IOC President Jacques Rogge (who berated Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt for celebrating his 100m and 200m wins — because, apparently, he can’t abide having black athletes celebrating), says that when major league players agree to be a part of the games the IOC will review their ban:  ”We have Federer, Nadal in tennis. We have the best cyclists. Rinaldinho is here in football. We want these guys in the game. We’re not saying its an entire Major League team, but we want the top athletes here at the Olympics.”

So much for amateur athletics. So much for the joy of victory, the agony of defeat. So much for up-close-and-personal. The Olympics are about profits — putting bodies in the seats, putting eyes in front of the television, and putting money in the bank. Exhibit A: In wake of the war in Bosnia, Olympic athletes asked the IOC to help them start a fund to rebuild Sarajevo. The IOC said ”no.” After all, the IOC isn’t a humanitarian organization. Rogge, a one-time yachtsman for Belgium, waves all of this off. “We’re a sporting organization,” he says, “not a political organization.”

The Big Train: For anyone following “Baseball Tonight’s” all-time franchise listings, the biggest surprise came on the night of July 31, when Tim Kurkjian (et.al.) announced that Kirby Puckett had outpolled Walter Johnson as the fan’s pick for all-time Twins franchise player. I suppose it shouldn’t be a surprise: baseball fans rarely remember two generations back — and Walter Johnson (who pitched in Washington twenty years) isn’t that well known except among the die-hards. But Kurkjian (a graduate of Walter Johnson High School) got it right: “Walter Johnson is the greatest pitcher to ever play the game of baseball.” I’ve got nothing against Puckett, but let’s review the bidding.

Johnson won 417 games, of which 100 were shutouts. What is most shocking is that “the big train” actually completed more games than he won — 531 (vs. 417). How can this possibly be? I think what this means is that even the games he lost were so close it was counter-productive to remove him. He was all the Senators had. He won over 30 games a season twice in his career, over 20 twelve times (including ten in a row) and notched over 3500 strikeouts. He led the majors in strikeouts for 60 years, until Nolan Ryan passed him. And here’s the punch line: the Kansas farmboy was a Senator. In the twenty years that Johnson pitched, the Senators finished first twice. In 1912 and 1913, Johnson accounted for roughly one-third of all the Senators’ wins. In 1911, the Senators were pathetic. They won only 64 games. But Johnson was brilliant; he won 25 of them. His ERA that year was 1.90. He once pitched 369 innings without giving up a home run.  Ty Cobb said he had the most powerful arm in baseball.

Johnson went into the Hall of Fame with Christy Mathewson in the Hall’s inaugural season. He was clearly better than Mathewson, but there are still those who argue that he was only the second best pitcher in history — behind Lefty Grove.

Nonsense.

Clem and the Whiz Kids: I met Casey Stengel in an elevator of Milwaukee’s Schroeder Hotel when I was eleven years old, in the summer of 1962. ”The old professor” was the then first year manager of the expansion New York Mets, but already a legend. “Say hello to Mr. Stengel,” my mother said. I recognized the name and man and he nodded to me and smiled. But as I remember it, he never asked whether I could play baseball: a conceit he allowed himself as he poked fun at a team that stands as one of the worst in baseball history.

I mention Stengel because I was reminded of him, the other night, when I channel-surfed right into the beginning of a  Twilight Zone episode from 1961. The Twilight Zone was one of my favorite shows as an eleven-year-old, in large part because it not only scared the bejesus out of me (honestly), but also because it was the last show I was allowed to stay up and watch on a Friday night filled with great shows — Route 66, Rawhide, Palladine and Gunsmoke. In that order.  

“Mr. Dingle, The Strong” features Don Rickles and Burgess Meredith, with Meredith playing “a much abused everyman” who is suddenly given tremendous physical powers by visiting unseen aliens. That’s not the point: the point is that the reason Rickles picks on Meredith (they’re in a bar) is that Meredith disagrees with Rickles over who has “better stuff” — Clem Labine or Robin Roberts. When Meredith hesitantly says “Roberts” (he knows this is not what Rickles wants to hear) he is summarily punched in the nose. It is only when he is given the gift of superhuman strength by the visiting invisible “Martians” that Rickles learns his lesson.

But who in their right mind would ever believe that Clem Labine had better stuff than Robin Roberts.

Labine was a servicable reliever who has gotten more attention than most servicable relievers deserve, in large part because he was a part of those great Brooklyn Dodger teams of the mid-1950s. Back before the save was acknowledged as an important stat, Labine led the Dodgers in saves — and the league.

But Roberts was a behemoth. He was the leader of the 1950 Phillies (the “whiz kids”) and winner of twenty games in five consecutive seasons. Towards the end of his career he pitched for the Orioles, Astros and Cubs, but those so-so years never detracted from what he did for the Phillies. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1976. And for good reason. His stats are breathtaking: 305 complete games and 45 shutouts.

Of course, I am quite sure that there are Labine partisans out there, especially among that particular baseball breed that views the Brooklyn Dodgers as the center of the baseball universe and are quick to dismiss all the rest of us as mere hobbyists.  Even so, if you love the Dodgers so much that you think that Clem Labine had better stuff than Robin Roberts you, like Luther Dingle, live your life with one foot in your mouth — “and the other in the Twilight Zone.”

Snakebit: It’s hard to feel sorry for the no-account D’Backs, particularly given their early season cheering section. One month into the season Baseball Tonight’s genetically incoherent Steve Philips dubbed the snakes “the team to beat” in the National League, which I cite as one of the reasons for their subsequent collapse. The D’Backs are well-built: great draft picks, a better-than-average pitching staff (including Brandon Webb, Micah Owings and Randy Johnson), good upper management and a stellar farm system. But it’s hard to ooh and ahh over a team that would now get into the playoffs while compiling more losses than wins. And let’s be honest. All that talk about their great young players is a little overdone: Justin Upton is hitting .242, Chris Young .236, and Alex Romero (we just can’t stop talking about Alex Romero) a breathless .243.

Then there’s the bevy of other players — dubbed “the D’Backs wealth of great young talent”: shortstop Stephen Drew (.256) and third baseman Mark Reynolds, who is hitting an anemic .255. Orlando Hudson is the only guy who has really met the team’s expectations; he’s hitting .302. Of course, the D’Backs have been beset by injuries, but that kind of whining doesn’t go down well in Anacostia. (Stop your whining and learn to hit a curve.) It would be great to sweep these guys, but that’s going to be tough, especially when you note that our beloved Nats have to come onto the field against, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball.

Rays and Reds: One of the salutory things about being a father is that, from time to time, you get to schlepp your children’s . . . stuff . . . around the country when they decide to move. So it was that I was able to visit Boston at the same time the Bosox visited Tampa Bay. While that eliminated any chance I had to visit Fenway, it yielded a late night foray to a Framingham bar, where a television larger than I have ever seen showed the Bosox taking on the Tampa Bay Rays in a Tuesday tilt at Tropicana. And it gave me a chance to rub shoulders with a group of baseball-savvy Bosox fans who, when not drinking, were yelling epithets at Terry Francona and Jason Varitek.

The Tuesday night Rays-Sox contest was one of the best television games I had seen in some time and convincing evidence that — unless the rest of the AL comes armed and ready – they are likely to get schooled by the rejuvenated Rays. The Rays swept the Sox in three (much as they had earlier swept the Cubs), and now sit atop the AL East. The world is turned upside down. “They’re good,” one Sox fan told me, “they’re the next Big Red Machine.” Well, probably not: but their bullpen is solid and with Evan Longoria and a rehabbed Carlos Pena at first (he had 46 home runs last year), the Rays are among the best teams in the game. But the key to their success (of course) is pitching.

On the night I watched, Matt Garza – who came over from Minnesota — shut down the Bosox for seven innings, before giving way to J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour. Howell looked unhittable, and when he set down Varitek the Bosox catcher looked absolutely baffled. It reminded me of the look Joe Morgan gave to Catfish Hunter during the second game of the 1972 World Series. Morgan could never solve Hunter, and the Reds (at the beginning of the Big Red Machine era) hit a combined .209 against the ”Swingin’ A’s.”

“The Big Blue Machine” is, in fact, nothing like the 1972 Reds. But it’s a lot like the “Swingin’ A’s,” who were grounded by strong pitching and punch-and-judy hitters. Hunter, Odom, Holtzman, Fingers and Blue stifled the Reds “machine” of Bench, Rose, Concepcion, Morgan, Geronimo, and Foster — exhibit A of how good pitching always beats good hitting. So it was in the Rays-Bosox series: as Kazmir, Garza, Shields, Wheeler, Howell and Percival held the Sawx to ten earned runs in three games. ”They’re the next big Red Machine,” a Red Sox fan told me, shaking his head after Grant Balfour shut down the B’s in game two. I disagree: if anything, the Tampa Bay Rays of 2008 are more like the “Swingin’ A’s.”

Speaking of which: Our beloved Nats are in Cincinnati for a four game set at the Great American Ballpark — where, after just one game and one inning, Junior has already hit number 304.

The Reds are Major League Baseball’s oldest franchise, and one of its most storied. But, since last winning a world series (in 1990), the “Redlegs” have fallen on hard times and are now rebuilding. The Dusty Baker 9 now features a great aging star, some sometime hitters, and a bevy of young throwers — all of whom (if Dusty’s legacy is an indication), will soon be on their way to the Mayo Clinic, for Tommy John surgery. These are not your daddy’s Reds: Brandon Phillips is their best ballplayer, Jay Bruce is one of their “emerging 8’s,” and Cueto and Volquez may well anchor a great pitching staff in the future. But the future seems a long ways away for those who decide to take in a game at the Great American Ballpark.

Put Up Your Dukes: Our friends at Federal Baseball weigh in on the Elijah Dukes-Manny Acta dust-up on Tuesday night, even going so far as to show a clip of Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon agreeing that now is the time for Dukes to go. What? Already? Listen, the Boston Red Sox are having fistfights in their dugouts for God’s sake and the World Champion Yanks of Billy Martin’s years couldn’t stand each other. So who the hell cares? Maybe a little dust-up will do these guys some good.

MLB.com, meanwhile, puts all of this down to “dugout miscommunication.” Of course, that explains everything — and nothing. Every baseball tiff (and every war, come to think of it), is about miscommunication. Still, there’s a story here somewhere, so here’s the scoop so far. Apparently (although this is just one version of the story), Dukes thought that Acta had not properly congratulated him on his double against the Pirates in the top of the ninth (followed by the Lastings Milledge home run). He was miffed. Others, unreported others, believed that Acta was angry with Dukes for overly celebrating after Milledge and Dukes had crossed home plate. This would not be the first time — or so the story goes — and Acta lost his temper, confronted Dukes in the dugout and read him out.

Dukes does not take these things lightly, of course, so after the game, he refused to high-five Acta during the traditional on-the-mound handshake. Acta gave a sly and cynical smile to this and kept on walking, but this was an act that was not bound to please. After the game there was a closed-door meeting between Dukes, Acta and GM Jim Bowden to clear that air. We can only imagine.

So what happened? The Washington Post blog on the Nationals had this exchange between Acta and reporters:

Q: Can you expand at all on what happened in the dugout yesterday?

MA: No, that’s yesterday’s news, and I don’t read yesterday’s paper. It’s over with. What happens in Pittsburgh stays in Pittsburgh. We talked it out after the game, and we’re cool, we’re fine.

Q: So does the decision to have Elijah back in the lineup emphasize what you’re talking about - that it’s over?

A: That had nothing to do. I’m never going to do something against my club because of whatever happens on the field. That had nothing to do whatever happened yesterday. He’s our right fielder.

So there you have it. Now you know as much as we do. Which is exactly nothing.

Complete Games: I watched the Nats lose to the Bucs tonight in Pittsburgh, then switched over to watch Ryan Dempster pitch the Cubs’ first complete game of the season, against the Braves. The Nats have not had one yet, but have come close. I thought that John Lannan had pitched one, but stats don’t lie — he went 7.1 against the O’s in a gem, while the up-and-down Jason Bergman went a full 8 against the Diamondbacks.

I only mention this because the other night I was checking some stats on the Baseball Reference and was curious about Sandy Koufax’s pitching record. I was always confused about the way sportwriter’s viewed Koufax. There was no question that he was a dominant pitcher, but he was not dominant over an extended period of time — like, say, Walter Johnson (21 years, 417 wins), or Christy Mathewson (17 years, 373 wins) or even Bob Gibson (17 years, 251 wins). Koufax, in comparison, pitched for only eleven years and had just 165 wins.

But here’s the difference. For a short time in those eleven years, Koufax absolutely defined pitching. The Cubs got their first complete game tonight. In 1965, Koufax threw  27 complete games. He did it again the next year, in 1966. Twenty-seven complete games. Koufax was brilliant but, in my opinion, Bob Gibson was better.

In 1968, when Gibson went 22-9 for the Cardinals, he pitched 28 complete games. The other great pitcher on the staff was Nelson Briles. The number three starter was Steve Carlton, who would later be traded to the Phillies for Rick Wise. Gibson’s ERA in 1968 was 1.12. He threw 304 innings, and gave up 62 walks. He allowed 38 earned runs during the entire season. In his World Series career, Gibson won seven games and lost two. Backed by Gibson’s pitching, the Cards won the Series in ‘64 and again in ‘67.

But here’s the thing that gets me, and that no stats book will show. In 1968, Gibson’s manager never made a visit to the mound to talk to Gibson — or to bring in a reliever. The pitching coach did, but never to take him out.

It is a rare sight so far this year so if you weren’t in the ballpark or didn’t watch it on t.v. you should go to the box score to witness Thursday’s pounding of the Mets. In a come from behind win the Nats slammed out 13 hits and 10 runs in as even an attack as you’re likely to see this season. The number 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 8 hitters in the line up had two hits apiece and were led by Felipe Lopez who had six RBI on a single and his sixth inning grand slam which put the game out of reach. It would appear that Senor Lopez is comfortable with his role as a starter and made a strong point that, for the time being at least, his days as a platoon player should be over.

Michael O’Connor came on in the sixth to pitch his first inning of the year, gave up one hit and no runs, and was rewarded with the win. In his second start of the season Sean Hill struck out five while giving up six hits and two earned runs in his five respectable innings of work. Rivera, Ayala and Rauch mopped up with an inning of work apiece.

On the other side of the ledger the two Carloses (Beltran and Delgado) were held to one hit in nine at-bats by the Nats’ pitching staff. The one hit was a Beltran dinger off Rivera in the seventh. Ryan Church continued his strong-out-of-the-gate hitting pace for the Mets going two-for-four with a walk and a ribbie. He’s hitting .350 with a .409 OBP and a .463 slugging percentage.

It was a very nice win to finish off the series with the Mets and a great lead-in for the three-game set with the very hot Cubbies who are atop the NL Central. The Cubs have won eight of 10 coming into the weekend. The Nats will face Ryan Dempster tomorrow night who is 3-0 thus far with a taut 3.0 ERA.

Diamond Nuggets

Jumbo presidents Abe and George greeted fans as they exited through the center field concourse in the late innings tonight. Stopping for photos and waves, they provided a nice opportunity to get up close and personal with a couple of the prezes we’ve come to love. . . . A suggestion for the front office folks: it might not be a bad idea to add some regular video games and (horrors!) perhaps go old-school with a few baseball-themed pinball machines in the arcade in the center field concourse. Guitar Hero, the race car video games and other high tech stuff are good for the teens but it leaves the kids still in the single digits with not much to do. . . . Skeevy Screech made an appearance in section 313 tonight. It all started out pleasantly enough with him/her/it mugging for the fans and posing for photos. But it soon went awry when it pantomimed picking its nose and eating it prior to departing. Nice.

The Washington Nationals finally got untracked tonight — scoring six against the Atlanta Braves. While the team of Carpenter and Sutton extolled the virtues of Ryan Zimmerman’s eighth inning double down the rightfield line, it was John Lannan who once again provided all the Nats needed. Lannan tossed a seven inning shutout with four strikeouts. This was not the eleven strikeout wonder of his previous no-decision outing (his fastball was not diving in on righthanders as much as it was last week), but it was a beautifully pitched game nonetheless.

Lannan is fasting becoming the ace of the staff — the undisputed Nats Number One Pitcher on a staff without an ace. The only other contender is Tim Redding, who has pitched well (as he did several nights ago in a losing effort), but who lacks the catch-em-looking stuff that Lannan has shown. Later, on “Baseball Tonight,” the team of John Kruk and Buck Showalter (sans Steve Phillips — thanks be to … ) idenitified the league’s aces and came up with the usual top-of-the-line dominators: Santana, Zambrano, Peavy, Webb, and one or two others. (I still believe there’s no better pitcher than Webb — the class of both leagues.) Lannan is certainly not in that company, but for a ballclub that’s not supposed to have any pitching, Lannan is “exhibit number 1″ of an ace-in-the-making — and if he keeps pitching the way he did in his last two outings, he’ll be on the Kruk-Showalter list by the end of the season. So for all of the Nats’ troubles recently (and they are formidable), Lannan is evidence that not all is amiss along the Anacostia. Then too, as I keep saying, there’s always this guy — who is on the way:

N.L. Predictions

Yeah, yeah, I know: who does predictions after 15 games? Well, I got behind in my posts. So sue me. Anyway, I won’t look at the standings. I promise. Like Arizona is the best team in baseball?! Please. Although it would be interesting to see Mark go apoplectic if they did win the division - again.

East

Phillies – Grant is the Phils, Hepburn the Mets

Mets – After Johan there’s no depth in their chart

Braves – Glavine and Smoltz run out of gas

Nats – They battle the fish for bottom of the barrel

Marlins – When your “ace” has a lifetime ERA of 4.98 you’re in trouble

Central

Cubs – If they don’t win in this division Lou throws a clot

Milwaukee – Prince helps ‘em make a run

Stros – Too many converted relievers in the rotation

Pirates – I don’t see it

St. Louis – Pujols has 360 total bases but it don’t mean squat

Reds – The year’s dog-bites-man story

West

Dodgers – In a dogfight to the end, Torre helps L.A. celebrate its 50^th anniversary in style

Padres – Good pitching and a strong lineup make L.A. sweat

Dbacks – They know how to win but fade in the stretch

Rockies – A good lineup won’t make up for little pitching

Giants – A Bonds-less team with Zito and a decent lineup = 80 wins

Back in 1965, Bobby Bragan had to be the most hated man in Wisconsin. This had nothing to do with Bragan himself, you understand, but with the fact that he was the manager of the lame duck Milwaukee Braves — who had announced before the beginning of the season that they would be abandoning County Stadium for the greener pastures of Atlanta. The city was stunned. Why would anyone want to leave Milwaukee for a city that was still recovering from Sherman’s well-deserved burning? Worse yet, the Braves were so desperate to leave that they offered Milwaukee $500,000 to let them out of their stadium lease. The city turned them down.

The Braves’ move was even more surprising because the team had just arrived from Boston in 1953, complete with a bevy of young talent that would bring them to the National League Pennant and a World Series within five years. They won it all in 1957, behind the pitching of Lew Burdette – with his famous spitter — who compiled three complete game wins and an ERA of 0.67. Crandall, Torre, Schoendienst, Mathews, Logan, Covington, Bruton and Aaron are still, for my money, one of the great World Series teams of all time.

Just so: eight years later, the folks who ran the Braves decided it was time to leave and so it was that every time Bragan emerged from the dugout he was booed mercilessly. Bragan feigned disinterest — but everyone knew he was thin-skinned.  Bragan’s reputation had preceded him. Back when Branch Rickey decided that Jackie Robinson would be baseball’s first black player, Bragan led a revolt of Dodgers’ who threatened to sign a petition saying that if Robinson played, they woundn’t. Bragan reportedly led the cabal that included Dixie Walker, Eddie Stanky, and Kirby Higbe. Dodger manager Leo Durocher got wind of this during Spring Training and called an early morning team meeting. Showing up in his pajamas and bright yellow bathrobe, Durocher told his players what he thought: “I hear some of you players don’t want to play with Robinson,” he said, “and that you have a petition drawn up that you are going to sign. Well boys, you know what you can do with that petition. You can wipe your ass with it. I hear Dixie Walker is going to send Mr. Rickey a letter asking to be traded. Just hand him the letter, Dixie, and you’re gone. GONE. I don’t care if a guy is yellow or black or if he has stripes like a fuckin’ zebra. I am the manager, and I say he plays.”

While the Bragan petition was dropped, Bragan’s reputation as being anti-Robinson was sealed, despite his later claim after “just one road trip, I saw the quality of Jackie the man and the player. I told Rickey I had changed my mind and I was honored to be a teammate of Jackie Robinson.”In any event (and putting aside Bragan’s later reputation as a steller minor league administrator), Milwaukee’s fans (and especially their African-American fans) never let Bragan forget what they thought of him. Bragan returned the favor: during one hot August game, Braves left fielder Rico Carty misplayed a ball in left field (not an oddity, as I recall) and Bragan came out of the dugout and headed to the mound. But instead of replacing the pitcher, he waved Carty into the dugout: the only time I have ever seen a manager so publicly humiliate a player. By the end of the game, the fans at County Stadium (and there weren’t many of them) were standing and clapping: “Rico, Rico, Rico.” (We might only imagine what the fans might have done had Bragan decided to replace the guy in right field — Henry Aaron — but not even Bragan would dare do that.)

Bragan’s stillborn petition might have divided the Dodgers between a pro-Robinson group and a sullen and silent cadre of Bragan supporters, but it didn’t. That the Dodgers went on the win the 1947 Pennant was attributable to the play of Robinson, who was voted Rookie of the Year, but also to Pee Wee Reese — who made a point of welcoming Robinson to the club and standing by him during some of the worst moments of the season. Bragan had expected Reese, a southerner, to be one of the petition signers, but Reese refused. In Cincinnati, where a large number of Reese fans showed up to shout epithets at Robinson, Reese walked across second base to chat with Robinson and put his arm around him.

Crosley Field went deathly still. If “the Little Colonel,” as his legion of fans called him, could welcome Jackie Robinson to the big leagues, well then so could they. Reese was a great personality. He held down an announcing spot on the “Game of the Week” with Dizzy Dean for years, back when the Yankees dominated the game and his color commentary was a thing of beauty. He was never a great baseball player — and partisans of Ron Santo point to Reese as an example of why the Cubs Captain should take his place in the Hall. But Reese wasn’t voted into the hall because he was a great player: he was voted into the Hall because of what he did for Jackie Robinson and baseball. Reese was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1984. The last line of his plaque reads: “Instrumental in easing acceptance of Jackie Robinson as baseball’s first black performer.”  

OK my friend – you’ve succeeded in provoking me. Here’s something for you to chew on – now that you’ve admitted that you’re at least smoking the right stuff.
 
And it must be good, cause it’s one thing to pick the Indians to win their division: But the Cubs?!? Sure, the Cubs could win their division. But that’s because they’re swimming in a sea of mediocrity. And I think you know that. Hell, you picked the Pirates to finish second. I could make a case for any of the six teams to win the NL Central – except maybe for the Cardinals, who seem to be unusually weak. But why bother? My prediction is that whoever wins the NL Central will lose in the first round of the playoffs.I don’t really want to spend much time thinking or writing about the National League. All the teams are flawed in one way or another. I do agree with you though that the Dodgers will win the West. In fact, I like the Dodgers to go to the World Series. I like their pitching – and replacing Grady oh-so-Little with the best manager in baseball has to help.

Let’s go back to the Indians. They’re a damn good team – second best in the majors last year, and second best again this year. The pitching staff has a lot to like. The middle relief is tremendous, although a Cleveland lead can be too easily wiped out by Borowski. The two guys at the top of the order (Sabathia and Carmona) are very good. Carmona is particularly nasty.But until these two erase the memories of last year’s playoff series with the Red Sox – who all-too-easily unnerved Fausto – they’re still playing second fiddle to the defending world champs. Many others have made the same point that I’m about to make – and the same prediction – so I won’t belabor it.

The Red Sox should be favored to repeat as World Champions because they have two essential components of any winning post-season formula — a proven, top-of-the-line ace in Josh Beckett and a lights-out closer in Jonathan Papelbon. And I don’t need to dwell on the strength of their line-up. Some teams have decent-enough line-ups and the potential to replicate the Red Sox winning ways.

Zambrano and Woods?

Santana and Wagner?

Penny and Saito?

Maybe. But until they demonstrate it, put your money on the Sawx.

My friend Dwilly (his picture below) — handsome guy, don’t you think? –

… anyway, my friend Dwilly has said he will post his predictions, but he was pretty lousy about his criticism of my own picks: “I agree that Dontrelle’s best days are behind him,” he wrote, “but the best pitching staff in Cleveland?!? You’re smoking the wrong stuff.” So I checked, and my good friend — the man in the floppy hat — is just dead wrong. I’m smoking the right stuff. And what is that stuff? Why it’s Special Chicago Cubs Victory Weed! that’s what it is. This will be the year the Cubs will finally break the curse, though it will take some time. You see, the Cubs have “grass is greener” disease: they think if another team has a player (any player) he must be pretty good and they want him. Exhibit A: this guy signed this guy (oops, sorry, I meant this guy )and sent this guy to AAA. Does Jim Hendry really believe that Reed Johnson is a better ballplayer than Matt Murton? C’mon. Then the Cubs proudly announced their starting five, which included Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis. I marked the occasion by vomiting.

So here’s what’ll happen. The Cubs will play .500 ball until the end of May, at which point Lou will throw three buckets of Gatorade around the clubhouse, scream at some people, send Dempster back to the bullpen (or give him his unconditional release), trade Jason Marquis and make Matt Murton outfielder number four. Lou did this last year, tinkering and tinkering and then fighting with the umps and the Cubs were better for it. The guy can flat out manage. And when he does that — when he tells Hendry the Cubs are Manishevitz with what they have and let’s-just-play-the-fricking-game — here’s how I’ll feel:

Our beloved Nats are a different story entirely — but hardly a bad one. John Kruk said that he thought Ryan Zimmerman could hit 50 home runs this year. Well, maybe not: but 40 is certainly in the cards. But the story for the Nats will be the comeback of Austin Kearns, who will hit at least 25 home runs and bat a solid .290, putting all his critics to shame. Now I know that Kearns looks a little, well … Kentucky … but he’s a gamer. The Nats will struggle, forcing Manny to make the decisions he doesn’t want to make — he’ll bring Tyler Clippard or Garrett Mock or Ross Detwiler in from Columbus (or wherever) and one of these guys will step up. And then Manny will make the most important decision he can make: he’ll put Dimitri Young back at first. Why? Because these kids need him. Last year, during John Lannan’s second outing — when he was visibly nervous — the camera caught Dimitri at first base staring at him, nodding and saying: “C’mon John, you can do this.” And I thought: now we know why they gave that man $10 million. He’s the heart of the team. He’s worth every penny of it. Anything else? Oh yeah, Lastings will do well in Center, but the question of whether Elijah Dukes can or will do whatever he is supposed to do (or whether it will be Wily Mo all the time), will be answered by another question: “Can Justin Maxwell play left field?” And long about the end of July, the Odalis Perez era in Washington will end.

And not a moment too soon.

The Mets and Phillies are the class of the rest of the league, though I wouldn’t stick with the Mets for too long: it takes more than a year to recover from a collapse like that (and wasn’t it a thing of beauty!) and the Braves will catch ‘em. The Dodgers will eat up the West (have you seen the Padres outfield?) and the Rockies will revert to form: Jeff Francis is their only pitcher. I have officially put the Arizona Assholes last, but only because (as you know) I hate ‘em. But they’re a hell of a team. That leaves the Brew Crew (who are in the wrong league) and the also-rans of the Central. The Crew will self-destruct because the problem in Milwaukee is not on the field, it’s in the clubhouse. Ned will be gone by the end of the year.

So here we go:

National League East 

National League Central

National League West

I’m going to play some favorites here, but this is what this is all about. 2008 will be the first year that a Nats player gets votes for the MVP (Zimmerman), but the award will go to Troy Tulowitzki. Check his numbers: There’s just no end to what this guy can do and everyone should see a Rockie’s game just to watch the left side of their infield. The Rockie’s problems are on the mound and they did little in the off-season to solve them. As for the “Assholes,” my hatred apart, Brandon Webb is something to behold — and certainly good enough to win the Cy Young. It’s the Dodgers in the playoffs, but only by a process of elimination: the West is filled with teams that want to pass the baton to someone else. In the end, Joe Torre will know what to do and he will do it — with the help of Dodger pitching. That leaves the Phillies, Cubs and (after the collapse of the Mets in, oh say — August) Braves. For the first time since ’45 those lovable losers, those mighty slugs, the team that traded Lou Brock, the choking folding Cubs of ’69, those little bears by the lakeside, those insulters of goats, take the league and head to Cleveland for the World Series.

Where they get swept.