Archive for the 'predictions' category

“Pepperpots” and White Elephants

That announcer Howard Cosell could bring bile to a mammal’s mouth was proved during the 1977 World Series. Cosell became semi-famous for coining the phrase “the bronx is burning” when, during the second game of the World Series between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers, a blimp-mounted camera looked down on an elementary school set accidentally ablaze and burning out of control. Cosell made the most of the moment, linking the fire at the school (which he conveniently misidentified as an abandoned tenement) with New York’s crime-ridden “Son of Sam” summer.

The term became the title of a so-so ESPN special on the machinations between the Evil Empire’s Senator Palpatine (George Steinbrenner) and Billy “Luke Skywalker” Martin. That Cosell could lower America’s gag reflex is not in doubt (he remains, in death, a controversial — and largely loathed — figure), but what I remember most is his constant reference to Billy Martin as a “pepperpot.” He sprinkled his every reference to Martin with the term, using the term reverently as a description of the “embattled” but “feisty” Yankee skipper. “Here he comes again, that little pepperpot.” It was enough to make you vomit.

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While Keith Jackson nearly literally rolled his eyes every time Cosell used the term (which was ridiculously often), I thought he might be on to something, and over the years I’ve been unofficially tracking baseball’s post-season “pepperpots” — a distinctive class of players who rise to the challenge of the World Series and provide surprising leadership. They are not great players (Martin was not), but are all, without exception, fascinating characters: they are invariably undersized and obnoxious with good gloves and outsized egos, which they hide with a liberal dose of false modesty.  

Take Martin: he probably saved the 1952 World Series for the Yankees when he made a lunging catch on a Jackie Robinson infield pop-up during the seventh inning of the seventh game. The bases were loaded. It was a single, simple play, but it made the difference in the world championship. In 1953, Martin was the Series MVP, playing unbelievable defense — even for him. But Martin couldn’t stick with the Empire because he was always in trouble, mouthing off and getting in fistfights. Nor was his the stuff of the Hall of Fame. He was a fairly average hitter: his personal high for homers was fifteen — in 1956. It wasn’t enough to keep Stengel from approving his trade to the Yanks’ farm team, the Kansas City A’s, in 1957. But Martin knew baseball, perhaps the most unique quality of “pepperpots.”

Pepperpots have always been a part of the game, ever since Miller Huggins seemed to define the term. Like Martin, “Mighty Mite” was scrawny, tough, vain and a good on-base man. He finished his career with more than 300 stolen bases and a much better player than Martin (unlike most “pepperpots” he’s in the Hall of Fame, a tenuous honor, if you ask me). Mighty Mite’s real genius was in managing, which he proved after he took over the reins of the Empire in 1918. Huggins built the then-laughing stock of the junior circuit into a powerhouse, leading them to six pennants and three World Series titles.

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I can think of four recent “pepperpots” in the mold of Huggins — most of them veterans of the Oakland A’s. Dick Green is the first: the brawling A’s of the 1970s were symbolized by Green, whose good glove, feisy attitude and post-season heroics during the ‘74 Series won him a Babe Ruth MVP trophy, this despite the fact that he barely grazed the ball with his bat during the series. Instead, his claim to fame in the Series was his Game 5 relay throw to Sal Bando to squelch a Los Angeles rally — the same kind of play that saw Billy Martin save the Empire in their showdown with the Dodger’s two decades before. The other notorious White Elephant Pepperpot is Walt Weiss, whose 1988 and 1989 World Series glovework (he only hit .133 in the ‘89 series) helped the A’s become a temporary dynasty.

More recent “pepperpots” are more legion. The World Series seems to follow Craig Counsell around. The light-hitting (.255 batting average in thirteen seasons) second baseman (there’s a pattern here somewhere), held down the second-sack for the World Champ Marlins in 1997. The Marlins regular second baseman that year was Luis Castillo, but only after Counsell arrived in a mid-season trade did the fish seem to start playing (he hit .299 in 51 games). While Counsell did not hit well in the post-season he, like his predecessors, continued to turn stellar plays up the middle. Counsell ended up in Arizona in 2001, where he homered in game one. Counsell, fast and tough and of only medium height and build for his era (six feet, 180 pounds) is now with the Brewers — the only evidence available that they have a chance at the Series. Counsell, an otherwise average player, wears two rings. At 38, Counsell is on his way out of baseball. If they were smart, the Brewers would hire him as his manager — but then, they’re the Brewers

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The other two nominees in this category are Mark Lemke and Phil Garner. Lemke might well be the quintessential “pepperpot.” An anemic looking second baseman with stick hands, Lemke played like Dimaggio in the post-season. In the 1991 Series, he hit three triples and batted .417. His extra-inning walk-off single in Game 3 is still memorable for me because Braves fans were, at the time, engaging in that incessantly insulting tomahawk chop. A never-amounted-to-much second baseman who flirted with the bench throughout his career, Lemke was the talk of baseball.

Like Martin, Phil Garner is remembered more for his managerial prowess than his on-the-field heroics. But Garner, like the “pepperpots” before him (he was nicknamed “scrap iron”), was known for his nearly unconscious post-season glove and (like Lemke) for his post-season bat. He hit .500 for “the family” in the ‘79 Series, where his teammates began to call him “Yosemite Sam.” Currently unemployed (he once managed the Crew, before they brought in the now dearly departed curse) the Brewers should bring him back: Garner’s teams are always built on speed and defense.

My tentative conclusion from all of this is that any successful post-season team needs a Martin, Huggins, Green, Weiss, Counsell, Lemke, or Garner — almost more than they need a “Mr. October.” Exhibit A was last year’s Bosox wunderkind Dustin (our lord and savior) Pedroia (Peter Gammons, fan club president, presiding). Pedroia remains the firmest evidence that defense and speed are at a premium in the post-season, where the nod goes to tough-guys who can win in an abbreviated series. It should be no different this year — where fast, defensive-minded infielders could make a difference. I’m not talking about a brilliant big-bat player (which Padroia has become) or Chase (say hello to my little friend) Utley, but rather a guy like the Angels’ Erick Aybar, the Pale Hose’s Alexei Ramirez, the Cubs Mike Fontenot or the Dodgers’ Angel Berroa.

By this barometer, where defense and speed are emphasized (as they are in the playoffs), it will be the Angels vs. White Sox in the AL, and the Cubs and Dodgers in the NL. And the MVP in both of those playoffs (and the World Series to follow) will not come down to a walk-off Mazeroski, but to a lazy infield pop-up that needs to be caught, or a relay throw that guns down a runner at third, or a deftly turned double-play. 

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Something to Chew On

OK my friend – you’ve succeeded in provoking me. Here’s something for you to chew on – now that you’ve admitted that you’re at least smoking the right stuff.
 
And it must be good, cause it’s one thing to pick the Indians to win their division: But the Cubs?!? Sure, the Cubs could win their division. But that’s because they’re swimming in a sea of mediocrity. And I think you know that.
Hell, you picked the Pirates to finish second. I could make a case for any of the six teams to win the NL Central – except maybe for the Cardinals, who seem to be unusually weak. But why bother? My prediction is that whoever wins the NL Central will lose in the first round of the playoffs.I don’t really want to spend much time thinking or writing about the National League. All the teams are flawed in one way or another. I do agree with you though that the Dodgers will win the West. In fact, I like the Dodgers to go to the World Series. I like their pitching – and replacing Grady oh-so-Little with the best manager in baseball has to help.

Let’s go back to the Indians. They’re a damn good team – second best in the majors last year, and second best again this year. The pitching staff has a lot to like. The middle relief is tremendous, although a Cleveland lead can be too easily wiped out by Borowski. The two guys at the top of the order (Sabathia and Carmona) are very good. Carmona is particularly nasty.
But until these two erase the memories of last year’s playoff series with the Red Sox – who all-too-easily unnerved Fausto – they’re still playing second fiddle to the defending world champs. Many others have made the same point that I’m about to make – and the same prediction – so I won’t belabor it.

The Red Sox should be favored to repeat as World Champions because they have two essential components of any winning post-season formula — a proven, top-of-the-line ace in Josh Beckett and a lights-out closer in Jonathan Papelbon. And I don’t need to dwell on the strength of their line-up. Some teams have decent-enough line-ups and the potential to replicate the Red Sox winning ways.

Zambrano and Woods?

Santana and Wagner?

Penny and Saito?

Maybe. But until they demonstrate it, put your money on the Sawx.

The Senior Circuit

My friend Dwilly (his picture below) — handsome guy, don’t you think? –

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… anyway, my friend Dwilly has said he will post his predictions, but he was pretty lousy about his criticism of my own picks: “I agree that Dontrelle’s best days are behind him,” he wrote, “but the best pitching staff in Cleveland?!? You’re smoking the wrong stuff.” So I checked, and my good friend — the man in the floppy hat — is just dead wrong. I’m smoking the right stuff. And what is that stuff? Why it’s Special Chicago Cubs Victory Weed! that’s what it is. This will be the year the Cubs will finally break the curse, though it will take some time. You see, the Cubs have “grass is greener” disease: they think if another team has a player (any player) he must be pretty good and they want him. Exhibit A: this guy signed this guy (oops, sorry, I meant this guy )and sent this guy to AAA. Does Jim Hendry really believe that Reed Johnson is a better ballplayer than Matt Murton? C’mon. Then the Cubs proudly announced their starting five, which included Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis. I marked the occasion by vomiting.

So here’s what’ll happen. The Cubs will play .500 ball until the end of May, at which point Lou will throw three buckets of Gatorade around the clubhouse, scream at some people, send Dempster back to the bullpen (or give him his unconditional release), trade Jason Marquis and make Matt Murton outfielder number four. Lou did this last year, tinkering and tinkering and then fighting with the umps and the Cubs were better for it. The guy can flat out manage. And when he does that — when he tells Hendry the Cubs are Manishevitz with what they have and let’s-just-play-the-fricking-game — here’s how I’ll feel:

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Our beloved Nats are a different story entirely — but hardly a bad one. John Kruk said that he thought Ryan Zimmerman could hit 50 home runs this year. Well, maybe not: but 40 is certainly in the cards. But the story for the Nats will be the comeback of Austin Kearns, who will hit at least 25 home runs and bat a solid .290, putting all his critics to shame. Now I know that Kearns looks a little, well … Kentucky … but he’s a gamer. The Nats will struggle, forcing Manny to make the decisions he doesn’t want to make — he’ll bring Tyler Clippard or Garrett Mock or Ross Detwiler in from Columbus (or wherever) and one of these guys will step up. And then Manny will make the most important decision he can make: he’ll put Dimitri Young back at first. Why? Because these kids need him. Last year, during John Lannan’s second outing — when he was visibly nervous — the camera caught Dimitri at first base staring at him, nodding and saying: “C’mon John, you can do this.” And I thought: now we know why they gave that man $10 million. He’s the heart of the team. He’s worth every penny of it. Anything else? Oh yeah, Lastings will do well in Center, but the question of whether Elijah Dukes can or will do whatever he is supposed to do (or whether it will be Wily Mo all the time), will be answered by another question: “Can Justin Maxwell play left field?” And long about the end of July, the Odalis Perez era in Washington will end.

And not a moment too soon.

The Mets and Phillies are the class of the rest of the league, though I wouldn’t stick with the Mets for too long: it takes more than a year to recover from a collapse like that (and wasn’t it a thing of beauty!) and the Braves will catch ‘em. The Dodgers will eat up the West (have you seen the Padres outfield?) and the Rockies will revert to form: Jeff Francis is their only pitcher. I have officially put the Arizona Assholes last, but only because (as you know) I hate ‘em. But they’re a hell of a team. That leaves the Brew Crew (who are in the wrong league) and the also-rans of the Central. The Crew will self-destruct because the problem in Milwaukee is not on the field, it’s in the clubhouse. Ned will be gone by the end of the year.

So here we go:

National League East 

1st Philadelphia Phillies Rollins and Howard and Utley, oh my
2nd Atlanta Braves These guys never go away
3rd New York Mets Okay, so that’s one good pitcher
4th Washington Nationals Bring up the kids Manny!
5th Florida Marlins 97 losses

National League Central

1st The Chicago Cubs Lou
2nd Pittsburgh Pirates Surprise! Bay hits 30
3rd Milwaukee Brewers Fistfights in the dugout
4th Cincinnati Reds The place where pitchers go to die
5th Houston Astros Read my lips: Miguel Tejada
6th St. Louis Cardinals By the time this is over, Pujols wants out

National League West

1st Los Angeles Dodgers Ignore the guy in left field
2nd Colorado Rockies They need more than Jeff Francis
3rd San Diego Padres Peavy carries the team
4th San Francisco Giants Aaron Rowand’s big mistake
5th The Arizona Assholes Byrnes breaks nose, groupies weep


I’m going to play some favorites here, but this is what this is all about. 2008 will be the first year that a Nats player gets votes for the MVP (Zimmerman), but the award will go to Troy Tulowitzki. Check his numbers: There’s just no end to what this guy can do and everyone should see a Rockie’s game just to watch the left side of their infield. The Rockie’s problems are on the mound and they did little in the off-season to solve them. As for the “Assholes,” my hatred apart, Brandon Webb is something to behold — and certainly good enough to win the Cy Young. It’s the Dodgers in the playoffs, but only by a process of elimination: the West is filled with teams that want to pass the baton to someone else. In the end, Joe Torre will know what to do and he will do it — with the help of Dodger pitching. That leaves the Phillies, Cubs and (after the collapse of the Mets in, oh say — August) Braves. For the first time since ’45 those lovable losers, those mighty slugs, the team that traded Lou Brock, the choking folding Cubs of ’69, those little bears by the lakeside, those insulters of goats, take the league and head to Cleveland for the World Series.

Where they get swept.

Predictions

When I was a kid I spent an inordinate amount of time each Spring assessing the relative worth of each team and its players and making predictions for the coming summer. It was easier then: there were only eight teams in each league — and only one league really mattered. Even so, my predictions were uncannily the same, year after year. This team always finished first. Now that I’m older (and here, by the way, is what I look like) …

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… anyway, now that I’m older I’m more mature in my picks. That is to say, no matter what, I always pick these guys last. Why? Because after I assess VORP values and OBPs, and walks per inning, I come down to the same thing: I hate ‘em. And I mean, I really hate em. But it’s a mature hate: if it weren’t for this showboat I’d probably think the Arizona Assholes (and so, they will always be) are just alright.

Which is to say (as I told me droogs last week when we had our first organizational meeting — er, well, as I forgot to tell them), we should all take some time to make our predictions and then (because it’s really fun) see how we do at the end of the year. But we’ve decided to add a wrinkle. This year in addition to me and me droogs making predictions, we’re going to add another wholly fictional picker (we’ll call him Ernie, after this guy) who will make predictions at random — from a hat. And we’ll see who’s better: the three of us brilliant analysts, or Joe Shit the Ragman.

So I’ll start with the junior circuit, because it’s the junior circuit: it’s not really baseball over there (they have the DH), one of its franchises is call the Texas Rangers (I mean, who really gives a damn) and it doesn’t have your Washington Nationals as one of its premier teams. Now, you can follow along at home and make your own predictions, and because we have a comment box here, you can write in to tell me just how full of beans I am. Oh, and in case you think there’s no accountability here, you should know that there’s a column beside each team that gives the reason “why” the prediction was made as is — ooooohhhhhh.

So, as a bow to Igor hisself, here’s my annual Rite of Spring, for the American League:

American League West

Place Team Why

1st LA Angels of Anaheim Vlad the Man wins MVP
2nd Seattle Mariners They finally have pitching - kinda
3rd Oakland A's Could be worse, but not by much
4th Texas Rangers Who cares?

American League Central

1st Cleveland Indians Best pitching staff in baseball
2nd Your Detroit Tigers I would not have traded for Dontrelle Willis
3rd Kansas City Royals Gil, yes, Gil Meche has a great year
4th Minnesota Twins Boof is all that's left
5th The Chicago White Sox Goodbye Garland, hello basement

American League East

1st Boston Red Sox The new Yankees, with all that means
2nd New York Yankees Girardi can't pitch
3rd Tampa Bay Rays Carlos hits 42, Scott wins 20
4th Toronto Blue Jays B.J. Ryan is returning!! Big Deal.
5th Baltimore Orioles Anything after Albert Belle is better

My sage comments?

This is pretty simple: the premier league in baseball is no more. After Boston, the Angels, Indians and Tigers, the rest of the league is either in a free-fall (like the White Sox) rebuilding (like the Royals), or still two pitchers away from contending (like Tampa Bay). The Mariners may squeeze into the top tier, but not by much — and they’re an injury (to this guy) from last place. That said, the Cleveland Indians are still the class of the league, if they can get over their PTSD from last year’s playoff collapse to the Red Sox. I just don’t see how anyone gets pass “C.C.” and Carmona — and then there’s Westbrook and a strong bullpen. I know, I know: Manny and Dave and Jacoby and that unbelievable line-up. Yeah, you’re right. You’re absolutely right. The Red Sox are a fricking hitting machine. But they’d better be, because their rotation is a mess. It’s Beckett and Dice-K and a prayer — and Beckett’s not healthy. And even with Dice-K it’s a prayer.

So, knowing this — why didn’t the Indians improve over the winter. Here’s my answer: they didn’t need to. If it weren’t for Vlad, the best player in the junior circuit might be Grady Sizemore, who could hit 40 home runs, easy. And Travis Hafner is no Jacoby Ellsbury: he’s better. A lot better. Hell, Travis hit 24 dingers last year and everyone was disappointed in his “off year.” Yeah? Trade him to the Nats. We’ll give ya Ryan Langerhans and a player to be named.

What about the Tigers? Well, what about them? Dontrelle can’t hit the strike zone, Ordonez has seen his best years, Bonderman is jittery, and Leland is a walk-with-the-bases-loaded away from a stroke. I love Polanco, the great untold story of the team, but he’s not a Jimmy Rollins and once you get past him and Granderson and a 280 pound (headed to about 340) very rich Miguel Cabrera you have a second place team. Even with Verlander. Hmmm. Still (granted) who wouldn’t want to have a second place team with the likes of these guys? As for the Yanks: these are not your Granddaddy’s Yanks, hell they’re not even your daddy’s Yanks. So that’s it: Vlad is the MVP, Gil Meche wins the Cy Young, and this time the Indians go to the Series — after sweeping the Red Sox.